I discussed three stylized possible equilibria for the United States economy in a July 18 blog. The best equilibrium, one with rapid job and GDP growth and low inflation was relegated to an unlikely possibility at this time. The worst equilibrium of the three, the “bad-deflation” scenario, was one where debt-laden and cash-strapped consumers . . . → Read More: Multiple-Equilibria in the United States Economy
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The June United States nonfarm job level declined by 125,000. The decrease reflected a 225,000 decrease in the number of temporary employees working on the 2010 Census. The government sector decrease was offset by a private–sector payroll employment increase of 83,000. The unemployment rate edged down from 9.7 to 9.5 percent. The unemployment rate . . . → Read More: The June Employment Situation We participate in the monthly Macro Markets’ survey of the Case-Shiller housing price index and the June results are online as of today, see the press release link here. The consensus projection is slightly more pessimistic than our forecast on housing prices. Comments about this month’s survey: First, the consensus as measured by this . . . → Read More: U.S. Home Price Survey A brief update of a blog of about a month ago regarding banking: The FDIC reports that 83 banks have been closed so far this year. While there were 140 bank failures in 2009, we are on track (based on a simple extrapolation of current trends) to experience at least 160 bank failures in . . . → Read More: Banks The commerce department reported today that United States housing starts fell from 659 thousand to 593 thousand from April to May. This was the largest drop in starts since 1991. As well, building permits, which are an indicator of future starts declined to a one-year low. This is bearish news for the United States . . . → Read More: United States Housing Starts |
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