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We are thrilled to see the first estimate of the 4th quarter GDP come in way above our forecast, but we wish we had forecast the change. We do expect to see the initial estimate revised down in subsequent releases. Why did the GDP estimate come in so strong? Mostly, it was investment. Fourth . . . → Read More: Fourth Quarter GDP The BEA’s second estimate of total United States Economic activity, just out today, is 2.8 percent. This is down 70 basis points from the “advance” estimate published a month ago. The change in the estimate was driven mainly by upward revisions to imports and downward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and to nonresidential fixed . . . → Read More: The Second Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP |
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