We released our new United States and California forecasts today.  As we note in our publication, available online HERE, we are pessimistic relative to consensus, particularly for 2010 quarters 2, 3, and 4. 

It appears that we see the negatives continuing longer than our forecasting colleagues at UCLA and across the nation.  These negatives include financial, real estate, and construction sectors.  We do not see residential foreclosures subsiding anytime soon, especially in California.  Commercial foreclosures may not have yet reached their cyclical low.  We feel that the oversupply of all types of real estate will continue to drive real estate market activity for at least a year.  This feeds into construction activity, which will be muted until the oversupply condition works itself out.  Thus, jobs related to construction activity will not recover for some time.  Banks are still not lending and they are still failing, and record high chargeoffs will continue.  Our forecast takes these factors seriously.

We are pleased to annouce the Oregon/Central Oregon Economic Forecast seminar will be held January 28, 2010 at the Riverhouse Hotel and Convention Center in Bend.  Registration and breakfast will start at 7:00 AM and the seminar starts at 8:00 AM.

The Presentations will Include:

• Gary Findley, The Status of Banks
• Jeffrey Speakes, Banking and the Economy
• Bill Watkins, The United States, Oregon, and Central Oregon Economic Forecast

Registration Details: Click HERE to Register

• Early Bird:                    $75          Until December 15
• Registration                  $95          From December 16, 2009 to January 25, 2010
• Late Registration         $110          From January 26, 2010, including the morning of the event

Location Information: Click Here