It was big news when bank charge offs exceeded $40 billion in 2008’s fourth quarter.  It was the first time in history that wrote off more than $40 billion in uncollectable loans.  Since then, you’ve probably heard nothing about bank charge offs, unless you follow CERF.

We think bank charge off data are important, . . . → Read More: Bank Charge Offs

The United States Employment Situation was released this morning and the glimmer of hope that I had been nurturing as the February, March, and April data came out has been weakened. While the May public sector jobs result was like I forecasted, the private sector jobs result was much weaker.

Non-farm jobs increased 54 . . . → Read More: The May United States Jobs Report

The United States Employment Situation was released this morning and the glimmer of hope that I had been nurturing as the February, March, and April data came out has been weakened. While the May public sector jobs result was like I forecasted, the private sector jobs result was much weaker.

Non-farm jobs increased 54 . . . → Read More: The May United State Jobs Report

This is a short note about our forecast of the May labor market. We are still bearish on the overall economy with the usual suspects: banking, real estate, and the labor market weighing against vigorous growth.

From the April results, the broad measure of unemployment (including under-employed & marginally attached to labor force) was . . . → Read More: The May Jobs Forecast