The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Economy

For about six quarters we have watched various measures of strong United States economic performance: Corporate profits have been very strong. The Dow has almost doubled since the early 2009 bottom of about 6,600. Productivity has been strong. During 2010 quarter 4, consumption grew 4 percent, significantly above the 3.4 percent post-war average, and . . . → Read More: The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Economy

Sooner Would be Better

We’ve been saying for a long time that the Eurozone has to break up.  There is no reason Greece and Germany should have the same monetary policy, never has been.  We’re glad to see other people are coming around.

The Greeks are discussing it at the policy level.  Other countries are probably also discussing . . . → Read More: Sooner Would be Better

The April Jobs Forecast

This is a short note about our forecast of the April labor market.  The data comes out this Friday, May 6.

Our labor market forecast is improving, slowly. Both February and March nonfarm payrolls increased by about 200 thousand, and we are tentatively confident that about 180 thousand can occur in April. This forecast . . . → Read More: The April Jobs Forecast