What to Do?

I’ll be giving a talk at the Valley Industry and Commerce Association (VICA) Business Forecast Conference on October 28 at the Warner Center Marriott in Woodland Hills California.  James Paulsen of Wells Capital Management and William Roberts of my undergraduate Alma Mater, California State University Northridge, will also be there.

The three of us were the lineup at last year’s event.  Pausen and Roberts were optimistic, and I was not.  I was correct, and they were not, and that is a problem.  My wife will tell you that, in spite of my antiquity, I have the emotional maturity of about a 12 year old.  My natural inclination is to get to the lectern, turn to my colleagues, put my thumb on my nose, waive the fingers above my hand, and say “Nanner nanner told you.”

Of course, that would be unacceptable, and not because of professional standards.  Professional standards can be violated, if your timing is good, you smile, and you use the right tone of voice.  The real problem is that I live in a glass house, and one of the things I learned from my father was that people who live in glass houses shouldn’t be tossing stones.  As sure as the sun will come up in the morning, I’ll be the one who’s wrong one day.  It is the nature of the forecasting business.  It has to be.

So, I’ll be polite,….but you can bet I’ll find a way to enjoy the moment.

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