Those Road Bumps Keep Popping Up

Written by Bill Watkins.

Reuters has a release of new housing data. Seems sales fell in September and Augusts’ numbers were revised down. I’m amazed at the writer’s confidence that we are in “widening recovery.” The money quotes are “The housing data represented a road bump in a recovery that otherwise appears to be widening.” & “With some lingering concern over the outlook, officials look set to take a go-slow approach.”

There you go. This is a bump in the road in a widening recovery, the existence e of which is generally accepted, with only some lingering doubts.

Even if you don’t buy our analysis, which is pessimistic, the quotes reflect a remarkable confidence. Given the massive weaknesses in our economy—over-leveraged businesses, banks, and consumers; continuing defaults on loans of all type, the worst job market in decades, and the ineffectiveness of both monetary and fiscal policy are just a few that come to mind—I can’t see how anyone could be so sanguine. Seems to me that analysts that have only “lingering doubts” are the letting their hearts lead their analysis.

We all hope for a recovery. The recession is ruining families and lives, but I don’t think analysts do a service when they let their analysis or forecasts reflect their hearts. The public is best served by our best detached analysis.

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